A Comparative Study of the Forecast Accuracy of Fuzzy and Time-Series Models

A Comparative Study of the Forecast Accuracy of Fuzzy and Time-Series Models

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Part of #A Comparative Study of the Forecast Accuracy of Fuzzy and Time-Series Models# :

Publishing year : 2015

Conference : Third International Conference on New Research in Management, Economics and Accounting

Number of pages : 11

Abstract: Crude oil, as a political-economic product, plays a significant role in the world economy. Almost all artifacts of a human being are dependent on it in some processes from production to distribution from energy consumption to transportation. Proper pricing of crude oil based on scientific principles could provide ground for economic growth. This paper deals with the oil price forecast using the fuzzy AR model. The results indicate that the accuracy of the fuzzy AR method is significantly higher than the ARMA method. Therefore, it is recommended to use fuzzy AR method to increase the reliability of a precise forecast.